By
Nick Powell
This
week’s Autumn Internationals are outside the test rugby window so are
technically not meant to be being played. England, Scotland, France and Italy
are all not starting until next week, but that doesn’t mean there aren’t some
exciting games of rugby in store.
Tonight, Argentina
face Japan in the opening Autumn International with Wales hoping to end an 11
match losing streak to Australia at the weekend before Ireland play New Zealand
in Chicago. I would write about South Africa’s match with the Barbarians but I
sense it will be impossible to predict.
I take on Rowan Grundy in week one, top quality
fly-half who will be hoping to translate his class onto his predictions…
Argentina vs
Japan
Argentina played
brilliantly as they reached a World Cup semi-final last year, and would have
been keen to build on that success into 2016. Beating Italy and then France
seemed to suggest a strong start to the New Year, before they slumped to a 27-0
home defeat to Les Bleus. They picked up one win in the Rugby Championship, but
continued to be inconsistent and will need to get it right ever week if they
hope to achieve big things in this year’s series.
Argentina have had an incosistent year since their superb win over Ireland (Credit: Getty images - John Barry)
Japan have not had a
spectacular year, but have shown they are on the way to competing with the top
teams in the world after two close tests against Scotland. Facing Argentina and
later Wales will give them a chance to play more top teams. With a home World
Cup now just 3 years away, they will hope they can earn another big scalp
before the May 2017 draw for that tournament to push themselves into a top
eight position for qualification, although it seems unlikely.
Japan are a quality
attacking side, but I think Argentina will just have too much in their locker
to put them away. No longer has a match against the Japanese become a nailed on
50 point thumping, but it would be a major shock if they could repeat their
heroics from last year.
Argentina by 20 points
Rowan:
Argentina by 14 points
Tonight
– KO 23:00 GMT
Wales vs
Australia
So Wales get going
with the big tests against Australia. A match that has featured so many
fantastic contests down the years, but unfortunately has seen the Australians
dominate in recent times. Wales are without Sam Warburton, Alun Wyn Jones and
Toby Faletau so face a real battle in the forwards. These are 3 key leaders and
their work rate will be difficult to replicate for their replacements. This
does open the door for Justin Tipuric though, who has to be one of the best
ball-playing 7s in the world. How Wales will play will be very interesting.
They attempted to add a bit more dynamism to “Warren-ball” over the summer with
the old style being found out a bit. The key to success against the Aussies is
smart rugby, something Dan Biggar has been playing with the Ospreys all season,
but will Rob Howley be able to get the forwards dominating set piece and the
backs looking sharp?
George North has had no shortage of success against Australia, but can his team raise their game on the day? (Credit Sky Sports)
They will need to
defend well, against an Australian side that is dangerous from all over the
park. Whether it’s Foley inside passes, Folau’s blistering breaks or Hooper’s
wide carrying, Australia can always make good yardage, and are incredibly
dangerous. It didn’t go right against England, but let’s not forget they scored
10 tries in that series. Their game management has improved and they seem to be
heading in the right direction. This game is really crucial for them. Win it
and they can get themselves on a roll against all of Europe’s top teams. Lose
it and they will be facing a battle to come away with any test victories, let
alone five.
Wales never start a
series well, and that’s why I’m leaning towards Australia for this one. For
Howley’s second spell to start with this match is pretty tough. Australia will
be fired up, and determined to keep their streak against Wales alive, so when
the going gets tough, they will be confident they can turn it round, Wales on
the other hand will lack that confidence with that mental block against
Australia. For me, it’s about being clinical, and Australia, who have been
playing together for the last five months and have faced all the best sides in
the World will just be that more clinical with their red-hot backline than a
slightly rusty (I think) Wales.
Australia by 7 points
Rowan:
Australia by 8 points
Wales
vs Australia is on BBC One – KO 14:30 GMT
Ireland vs New
Zealand
Ireland did well to
tie down Joe Schmidt until the end of the next World Cup. Losing him would have
been really bad, especially at a time where their team is in a bit of a
transition period. Like I said in the preview, this is going to be a real test
for Ireland. The Southern hemisphere’s two best teams and Canada, who will
yield little in the way of ranking points. That means that they need to get a
win against one of New Zealand or Australia. This will be the first of two
attempts to beat New Zealand. It will be really, really tough. They have most
of their top players fit, and whilst they are lacking a few key ball carriers
like Sean O’Brien, you wouldn’t change many of their team if all were fit. For
me this will be about learning lessons to bring into the second test in Dublin
in two weeks.
To their credit, Irish
players and their teams are in a really decent period of form at the moment.
Johnny Sexton has led a really good Leinster team to some solid form, Munster
out fought and out thought Glasgow in a thumping win, whilst spending 70
minutes a man down. Though few Irish players have really stood out as putting
in superb performances in the last few months other than Josh Van der Flier and
Garry Ringrose, they look like they could come together to be a strong team.
They need to play with confidence though, and if they get thumped here, they’ll
lose it very quickly.
Ireland were heartbroken by Ryan Crotty's last minute try in 2013 (credit: Daily Mail)
For New Zealand, it
will be win number 19 in a remarkable run. What I find the most amazing is that
despite losing hundreds and hundreds of caps to retirement, New Zealand look
better than ever. Infact right now they look the best team of all time. Beauden
Barrett can’t kick goals to save his life, but his turn of pace, handling,
decision making and vision are incredible and every chance he sniffs he
executes. With the best backs in the world outside him, they make his job even
easier. And when games are looking tight, they have phenomenal fitness to come
through. Scoring 33 answered points against Argentina in 25 minutes, 21 in 20
against Wales, and 22 in as many against the Aussies most recently, they can
pull away when its close, and they do it consistently. They also have a set
piece that never loses the ball, Dane
Coles’ throws hit their lifter 100 times out of 100. With a strong scrum and
forwards with great hands, the pack should not be neglected for the dazzling
backs. This is a ridiculous team.
Ireland have a real
challenge to stay competitive let alone win. They have lost all but one of
their (INS) games against New Zealand and have never won. You wouldn’t exactly
say this is an opportunity either, with New Zealand as good as they are right
now. There are things that can give them confidence. In their last meeting,
Ireland raced into a 19-0 lead and came so close to victory, they also have a
Kiwi coach, who will know exactly what he’s doing. That said, this is a
seriously good New Zealand side against an Irish team who have won just 3 of
their last 9 internationals with just one of those games against a top three
team in the world. Hopefully this can be a game to learn from ahead of a second
match against New Zealand, but it won’t be a win.
New
Zealand by 23 points
Rowan:
“New Zealand are untouchable at the
moment. The question is what will they do rather than Ireland. Regardless of
how Ireland play, New Zealand are so good that their performance will dictate
the result of the match”
New
Zealand by 23 points
New
Zealand vs Ireland is on Sky Sports 1 – KO 20:00 GMT
Comments
Post a Comment