By Nick
Powell
It’s
that time of the year again. The Northern and Southern hemisphere duel again with
several countries looking to prove a point. But there is one team that have
made it abundantly clear they are world number one. Can anyone stop New Zealand?
In comparison to last year,
this has been a disappointing year for international rugby. Cast your mind back
12 months ago, and world rugby celebrated a superb 12 months. So many free
flowing, close and quality encounters. There had two of rugby’s greatest upsets
ever, the greatest Six Nations finale ever and the greatest World Cup Final.
12 tries were scored as England beat France 55-35
But 12 months on and Union is
starting to resemble its sister sport. No doubt, the All Blacks are by far and
away the greatest team in history, but there have been times where their
pattern of domination has been interrupted. Whether it is the Welsh team of the
1970s, Australia in the 1990s, the English side at the beginning of this
century or South Africa at the end of the 00s, they have sometimes been the
bridesmaids to an alternative World Number one.
That happens every few years,
and it generally doesn’t last long, but it happens. Now however, that isn’t
happening and it doesn’t look like happening. This relates to Rugby League
through the dominance of one nation. New Zealand are becoming the Australia of
Rugby League, a team who just don’t get beaten, and when they do, the whole
world of that sport celebrates.
New Zealand beat Australia 29-9 to wrap up the Bledisloe Cup after two games
Can anyone pick apart the Red Rose or Silver Fern?
Disappointingly, England and
New Zealand aren’t meeting this autumn. It is a fixture the neutrals would like
to see, partly because one of them would lose, but partly also because these
two teams would match up brilliantly, especially when both fully fit.
England will be somewhat
relieved however, given their current injury list, that they aren’t going to be
playing them and have a real challenge on their hands with so many front-line
players missing. From the team that started in the grand slam victory, around 6
players are missing. That, alongside the fact they have been seriously
diminished in the back row and especially in the 7 shirt.
They have some games that are
tricky but winnable. South Africa will be physical and hard to beat, but are
low on confidence and are re-building, with injury issues of their own. Fiji
can be dangerous but even in their worst days England have never lost to them.
England have a superb recent record against Argentina and will exploit their
weaknesses. Australia is where the real challenge will lie, but it has to be
said, several of England’s replacement players featured in the 3-0 test win.
They know how to beat the Aussies and after 3 weeks preparation should be more
than ready for the battle.
Expect an exciting showdown
at Twickenham, with both teams unbeaten heading into it.
As for New Zealand, it would
be very hard to bet against them making it 4 out of 4 as they finish a perfect
year at the Stade de France. They face tricky tests against Ireland away but
will have little problem against the Azurri in between those games. Still
unbeaten against Ireland since they first met back in 1905 they can probably be
forgiven for being highly confident for another couple of wins
Can the other Six Nations get any wins?
Wales start life under Rob
Howley looking to get their first win over Australia in 11 attempts. Like
England against South Africa they just haven’t been able to find a victory
against this Southern Hemisphere side and it seems a mental block is beginning
to form. In Howley’s previous spell as Wales’s boss, he indeed won the Six
Nations, but also lost all four Autumn Internationals, with defeats to
Argentina and Samoa part of a miserable series. He’ll be hoping to put that
record right as well as the Australia one as they look to start heading back
towards the classier section of the World Rugby’s top ten.
Wales came so close to victory against Australia in 2013
Ireland have two shots
against New Zealand as mentioned earlier. I may sound mad, but I believe they
have a chance, in the second attempt, if the first attempt doesn’t go too
badly. If Ireland can learn the lessons from the first game, they can give
themselves a genuine chance of upsetting the All Blacks. That does rely on New
Zealand learning little from that encounter but how can you when you’re that
close to perfection? I would put my money on the All Blacks, but I wouldn’t
completely right off the Irish, not for a moment.
As for the blue teams, there
is much to prove. Italy are set to face both New Zealand and South Africa and
will be happy to not be thumped. It is a baptism of fire for Conor O’Shea,
taking Italy into his first autumn series. Scotland are going to have a strange
series, with Vern Cotter being released from his contract in six months, like
Italy in 2015/16, you have to question where the motivation will be found. Australia
and Argentina will both be travelling to Murrayfield. Finally France. In the
last 6 years they have beaten Australia 33-6 and lost to them 16-59 so look out
for a crazy scoreline there. They will be desperately hoping they can mark the
end of a miserable 6 year period.
France have a 14:8 record against Australia at home
Will the Southern Hemisphere retain its’ dominance?
Last year’s RWC semi-finals
saw all four Southern Hemisphere giants ensure there would be no inclusion for
the European sides. A year on however, and the other 3 look as if they are just
as far behind New Zealand as the Six Nations. Starting with Australia, who
ended their 6 match losing streak with victory other South Africa, going on to
finish 2nd in this year’s Rugby Championship.
They will play all five
nations, the first time this has happened for many years. This could either
show them to be the leading contender to the All Blacks or make clear their
decline in the last year. With Wales still having a mental block against them,
and Scotland and France not in great nick, you’d back them for at least three
wins. Ireland will be tricky but if they are on a run of 3 from 3 they should
have the confidence to beat them. That will leave England, and the prospect of
a Grand Slam tour, that could be a fantastic game and decisive in telling us
who is world number 2.
Under Pressure? Cheika's men have lost 8 of their last 11 matches
For South Africa, the
schedule is not an easy one. England and Wales will present genuine problems
for the Springboks in my opinion. They will beat the Barbarians and Italy, but
playing an England team on a 10 match winning streak and an experienced Wales
team who we know get better as the internationals go on will be a difficult
task. This will be a huge test for Alastair Coetzee and his troops.
Finally Argentina. A team
that has brute force and flair that can make them so dangerous. Where they
struggle is putting chances away though, and at this level it is vital to take
your opportunities when they come. Facing Scotland, Wales and England, they
will have it tough, but be prepared for some close battles in these games.
Predictions
1. New Zealand: 4 wins, 0 losses – beat Ireland (1), beat Italy, beat Ireland (2),
beat France
Key Man: Beauden Barrett
Tough to
see how anyone will stop New Zealand having a perfect year and extending their
winning run to 22. Beauden Barrett and his magnificent backline finishing off
the ball provided to them by their well-drilled and rock solid pack. The best
in the business.
2.
England: 4 wins, 0 losses
– beat South Africa, beat Fiji, beat Argentina, beat Australia
Key Man: Owen Farrell
England have got
injuries, but will still have a quality forward pack with a first choice front
row. With Farrell still running the show from 12, they will still look
dangerous out wide and the wingers should be OK, especially if Semesa
Rokoduguni plays. They have their tails up and only the All Blacks look capable
of defeating them under Jones.
England are on a 10 match winning streak, with Jones being in charge for 9 of those
3.
Australia: 4 wins, 1 loss – beat Wales,
beat Scotland, beat France, beat Ireland, lose to England
Key Man:
Bernard Foley
Australia are starting to resemble something like the team they
were last year, and will beat their first 4 opponents as a result. The final
showdown against England will be a classic, but the men in white will come out
on top with the confidence of that amazing summer series win. Foley will be
dangerous and will carve apart any weak defending, I just think England will be
a game too far at the end of a long year.
4. South Africa: 2 wins, 2 losses –
beat Barbarians, lose to England, beat Italy, lose to Wales
Key Man: Eden Etzebeth
South Africa have had
a very up and down and difficult year. They will have two easy games that they
will win comfortably but face really tough games against England and Wales. Their
front five contains two world class players in Strauss and Etzebeth, who would
have had a brilliant battle with Itoje if the latter was fit, but England have
talked about how ready they are for the physical battle and if the Boks play a
confident Wales, I cannot see them beating either side. This young team has a
long way to come.
5. Wales: 3 wins, 1 loss – lose to Australia, beat Argentina, beat Japan, beat
South Africa
Key Man: George
North
Wales have a problem against Australia. They are a team that Wales
have a huge mental block against. They’ve never started a series well and I
can’t see that happening here, against an improving Australia, but the Japan
and Argentina games will be all the build-up they need for a big showdown
against South Africa, significant because the winner is likely to gain a place
in the World’s top four, close to the draw for the 2019 tournament. I can see
them getting revenge for that agonising quarter final exit at last year’s World
Cup with their vast experience.
Howley lost his first five internationals when he last coached Wales, but then won his last four to claim the 2013 Six Nations
6. Ireland: 1 win, 3 losses – lose to New Zealand (1), beat Canada, lose to
New Zealand (2), lose to Australia
Key Man: Johnny
Sexton
Why Ireland have given themselves such a tough schedule so close
to the draw for the World Cup is strange. I don’t think they’ll beat New
Zealand, they never have. They’ll beat Canada, but will receive next to nothing
in the way of ranking points for that, and low on confidence, they will lose to
Australia. Someone who organises Ireland’s fixtures should get fired, it’s not
going to be a nice end to the year for the men in green.
7. Scotland – 1 win, 2 losses – lose to Australia, lose to Argentina, beat
Georgia.
Key Man: Greig
Laidlaw
Scotland have had a decent year, and things were seemingly
moving in the right direction under Vern Cotter, but times have changed and
with Cotter on the way out, I think they’ll really struggle. When you announce
a coach is on the way out, things tend to go wrong and I think that will happen
at Scotland, in the long time this is the right decision, but in the short term
they’ll be negative effects. Laidlaw will have to stand up and motivate his
bemused troops.
8. France – 1 win, 2 losses – beat Samoa, lose to Australia, lose to New
Zealand.
Key Man: Wesley
Fofana
France seem to be heading in the right direction after beating
Ireland earlier in the year and thumping Argentina away in summer (not an easy
thing to do), they face two tough teams here, who I can’t see them beating but
they should put Samoa away. The key for Coach Guy Noves is finding his best
team. Something he’ll need for the Six Nations if he wants to see improvement
there.
9. Argentina – 1 win, 2 losses – lose to Wales, beat Scotland, lose to England.
Key Man:
Nicolas Sanchez
I think Argentina will do OK this year, but it will be nothing
spectacular. Their inconsistency was exposed at the Rugby Championship and I
back a will drilled England team to keep them out in defence and take their
chances in attack. I also think Wales will have them. The Principality Stadium
is a tough place to come and that Wales team is packed with experience, enough
to turn over the Pumas. I can see them beating Scotland, but that is all.
10. Italy – 1 win, 2 losses – lose to New Zealand, lose to South Africa, beat
Tonga.
Key Man: Sergio
Parisse
Italy will be happy with their recruitment of Conor O’Shea. He
will give them direction and get the best out of the individuals. Italy will
obviously struggle against their Rugby Championship giants, but I think they’ll
learn from those games, which will help them pick up Six Nations wins in the
long term, and beat Tonga in the short term.
Former Harlequins coach O'Shea has stated he wants this Italian side to be the "Best ever"
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