Apologies for the lack of recent posts, school is now in full swing.
And that means the Premiership is too.
It has been a compelling start to the season with a revitalised Bath, Wasps and Saracens all sharing the top three spots on 14 points. With Bristol, Worcester and Harlequins the early strugglers, and everyone in between reasonably content with the way they've started.
This weekend sees some big derbies and classic rivalries across the three days, the pick of the fixtures being Sunday's clash between historical rivals Leicester and Bath. So without further ado, the predictions.
Bristol vs Exeter
Bristol suffered a desperately poor defeat to Wasps at the weekend, and other than a decent challenge of Harlequins, have looked really poor so far this season. The main problem is their defence, which has now leaked 102 points in their last two games, with 14 tries being run in against them. This year's Wasps team are top class, but 70 points is way too many, even for a newly-promoted side. I don't think they will go the same way as London Welsh, but they need to sort it out quickly otherwise they will really struggle to pick up a victory this year.
In contrast to Bristol, Exeter should really have beaten Wasps and finally got their first win of the season with an ultimately comfortable win against Harlequins. The latter's defence was shambolic at times, but Bristol's is hardly better. Exeter were clinical, taking almost every chance that came their way and but for a couple of late tries, defended really solidly too.
That's why I think it will be very difficult for Bristol here, they are up against a side that will take chances against a weak defence and defend solidly themselves, so I can't see them putting up too much resistance as Exeter march towards a second straight bonus point win.
Exeter by 25 points
Gloucester vs Newcastle
Gloucester and Newcastle are too sides that have suffered immensely frustrating home defeats to Leicester, have had one poor performance, and one great win over Sale. It's funny to think how similar these two's season have been. Starting with the Cherry and whites, and it was a superbly composed performance that helped them win away at Sale, watching the game you never really thought the Manchester side ever had a chance, and they played some good rugby in their first two games, albeit missing out on the right result.
Newcastle had a shocker against Bath, but at home have put in some really solid displays, and arguably deserved better when they went down by just 1 point to Leicester at the weekend. Another strong performance here, and I think they will start to increasingly put distance between themselves and the prospect of relegation, for me, they don't look like a side that will go down.
Newcastle were a simple drop goal away from victory
I fancy Gloucester to get their first win at Kingsholm this season, and I do think they'll do it with a degree of comfort. They look in much better shape this season, and Newcastle have yet to show they can put in a decent performance on the road, they will here, but decent won't be good enough.
Gloucester by 13 points
Harlequins vs Saracens
The contrast between Harlequins' and Saracens' performances at Sandy Park, home of the Exeter Chiefs was staggering. The former lost 36-25, the latter took a 13-34 win away from the West Country the week before. It is amazing to think how much these two have separated in terms of quality in the last 2 seasons. In 2014 they played a tight semi-final which Quins led 17-11 heading into the last half hour, before ultimately being overpowered 31-17. Since then Quins have fallen away spectacularly, while Saracens have won 3 trophies, including 2/2 last season.
While he provided great service to the side, many were happy to see the back of Conor O' Shea for Quins. They needed fresh management. For Bath, it has been so effective. For Quins, it has not been freshened up as they have simply brought John Kingston up through the backroom staff and as expected they have not changed. Quins have been poor this season. They beat Bristol, who went down 70-22 to Wasps last weekend, by the skin of their teeth and since then, have flopped to lame defeats at Sale and Exeter, two games they were capable of winning against sides that headed into the game low on confidence. There is so much wrong at Quins, it's impossible to analyse it in a paragraph, so I'll just list them. Lineout, defence, attack, link between forwards and backs, motivation, intensity, handling, tactics, leadership and confidence.
Saracens have kicked on from their double last season with three comprehensive victories, and their last two, against Exeter and Northampton, they have played really well in. Neither of those two sides played badly against them, but Saracens defence, tactical kicking and finishing ability has been simply world class in their opening three games, there is little more to be said.
I often use the cliche "this could go one of two ways", but I won't be using it here. Part of me, as a Quins fan, believes the West London side have got the class to test Saracens and make it tough for them, but the thing is, if Exeter lose by 21 points at home to them then you struggle to see how Quins can beat them. I also think that in contrast to last year, where Quins started poorly but were dragged back into the game by a vocal Stoop, a poor start will lead to anger and frustration and if they start badly, it will go downhill very quickly. I hope to be proved wrong, but I doubt I will be, Saracens are just far too well drilled to have any trouble dispatching this poorly coached team.
Charlie Hodgson, now retired, scored 22 of Saracens points as they thrashed Harlequins 39-0 in 2014
Saracens by 30 points
Northampton vs Wasps
It has not been the best start to the season for the Saints. Defeat to potential Champions Cup rivals Bath, followed by a decent performance against Bristol, but then a disappointing result at Saracens, though it would be hard to say Saints played badly in that game. Unfortunately for them though, the "decent" performance they put in against Sarries won't be enough against this Wasps side.
Wasps have been simply electric this season, it is very true that they have spent plenty of cash, so Dai Young has got a lot of quality at his fingertips, but to make them gel as quickly as he has is very impressive. 18 tries and counting, this Wasps side will be in the top two without a shadow of a doubt, the question is can they challenge Sarries for the number 1 spot? We'll know a lot more after this encounter.
For me they'll do it. It's not always right to compare, but Northampton only managed 32 points against Bristol to Wasps' 70. Everything seems to be going right for them in attack and whilst I am not ruling out Saints to put up a strong fight, I can see Wasps winning a 2nd midlands battle in 3 matches, with relative comfort.
Wasps by 12 points
Worcester vs Sale
Two teams that will not be impressed by their opening rounds, but have had moments to smile about among the doom and gloom. Starting with Worcester, who were outplayed at title contenders Saracens and Bath, beaten in rounds 1 and 3 respectively, but showed incredible heart to nick a draw with just 14 men against an in-form Gloucester side in the middle of that. Worcester have a good squad, and in time, I think they'll be a good side.
It's worth noting the importance of this game, the winner will start to move away from the bottom of the table while the loser will have 3 defeats out of 4. For me, these sides could both be involved in a relegation battle, but could also have comfortable seasons, and a lot will be riding on Saturday. Sale have Leicester and Bath in their next two games, so will be desperately hoping to take the pressure off those games with a win here.
Moving onto the Manchester side, and from what we've seen so far this season, it seems unlikely they'll be producing the kind of performance they managed in the League last year. As I've mentioned their next two games are tough and if they want to avoid getting bogged down at the bottom they need to find a win here at Sixways. They have a decent squad, but it is really lacking in depth and they have a real gap at 10.
I think their discipline will let them down here. Worcester have faced some tough teams but with the game as crucial as it is, they'll be highly motivated and will bring the lessons they've learned into this one. It will be close, but Worcester will steal it
Worcester by 4 points
Leicester vs Bath
It's strange to think these two have such an intense rivalry given the fact they are so far away from each other, but throughout the 80s and 90s, these two dominated what was known as the "Courage League", exchanging the first 9 titles together, but since Bath won the last of those in 1996, Leicester have won 8 titles, and they haven't got their hands on the trophy for 20 years and counting.
But things are looking pretty bright for the west-country side this year. They look fresh, motivated and ready to go as they go in search of that allusive title. George Ford is in fine form scoring 53 points in the opening 3 games of the season and Bath's line-up is starting to show just how good it can be when in form, as they have surged to the number 1 spot after a fine start to the campaign.
Leicester have not been at their sharpest so far, and if there's any match you suspect they'll bring it for, it will be this oneh. They have got a quality backline and a brutal pack, much like Bath so this will be an intense battle. It will be crucial how their backs perform, the likes of Manu Tuilagi and Tulisa Veainu need to be at their best, if they are they could be ruthlessly effective.
I'm giving this to Leicester, I think they just have the class in the backline to win this win. No doubt Bath are on the way back up but I just think this will be a step too far for them, this is a high quality Leicester side and when they click (and I suspect they will this weekend) they'll get a win.
Leicester win by 7 points
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