By Nick Powell
It's over before it's begun. Roger
Federer has just announced that he will not play anymore tennis this season.
With him missing Rio 2016, it surely spells the end of any hopes of picking up
an Olympic Singles gold. Is this the break he needs to finish his career in
style? Or is it the beginning of the end for the greatest ever?
Federer, 34, might have won 17 grand slams but he hasn't won for four years and at this age he's only going to get worse. His career took a sharp downward turn in 2013, but since his racket change towards the end of that year, it has revived but he has not been able to get number 18, despite 3 slam finals.
The key problem in those big games has been the physical side of things, unfortunately. Federer has not been able to compete with Djokovic, a superhuman athlete, in the 4th and 5th sets. While Djokovic is incredibly fit and Murray has run into the same problems when getting into big finals, his semi-final defeat to Milos Raonic saw him fade after playing two fantastic sets to lead the match.
What is true, is that Federer will go on longer than most players, he has managed to keep largely injury free up to now in his career and the way he plays enables him to keep going in that he doesn't put much pressure on his joints. The key question is, will the break help him recover or is it wasting yet more precious time for the Swiss to compete amongst the World's best?
His Rivals
Andy Murray played the tennis of
his life at Wimbledon and Novak Djokovic showed just how good he is in the
first two grand slams of the year. With those two on fire, you feel that this
season would have been unlikely to produce the US Open for him. Maybe Murray
and Djokovic will come back next year physically and mentally exhausted from
dominating tournaments and Federer will be able to climb over the pile of
bodies for victory.
Murray is
finding the best form of his career, shown by his second Wimbledon title
His big conqueror through
the years, Rafael Nadal, is seriously struggling with injuries and you feel
Federer may even go on longer than the 30 year old, and compatriot Stan
Wawrinka is not in anything like the kind of form that earned him his first two
grand slam titles.
But with Federer taking a break, his ranking will fall and if his ranking falls, his seeding will fall and when that happens, there is a possibility of meeting one of the big guns early on in a grand slam. If this happens too often Federer may not be able to get into the business end of a major and will therefore have to work really hard to climb back into the top 10 and get himself amongst the top players.
Youngsters will also emerge next year. Raonic is improving as he moves into the back end of his 20s and if Nick Kyrgios can mature a bit, then you can't help but feel he will be a champion at some stage. Dominic Thiem of Austria is also improving constantly along with Lucas Pouille of France. By the time Federer returns, he may have to worry about a lot more than just Murray and Djokovic.
History wouldn't say it is Impossible
The last time a man over the age of 35 won a grand slam was back in 1972. Ken Rosewall is the only man in the open era to win a grand slam over the age of 35, although he did that three times, so hope is not all lost for the Swiss Maestro. Whilst Rosewall may only be one man, it is not unforeseeable that Federer will be able to do this, given the fact he is still in the World's top three, and has been winning titles, including masters titles. If Rosewall can do it, surely Roger can?
Rosewall,
pictured, reached the Wimbledon quarter final aged 39
But tennis was a different game back then, there was less physicality and power, players like Tomas Berdych or Milos Raonic, who are able to dominate with their muscle and power through groundstrokes and serves respectively, just didn't exist back then. Having to play two or three of these opponents in a row really takes it out of you. Rosewall had to put in a big physcial effort to win grand slams, but nothing like the effort that players have to put in nowadays.
Is the Swiss tainting his record?
There is often a fear that a
legendary sportsman can often reach a point where their career fizzles out and
ultimately they are seen as someone who wasn’t really the greatest at what they
did, they lose more games against average players and, although people will
still remember the great wins, they’ll also remember the bad defeats. This
would be especially true for Roger, as people could say that as soon as he
entered the “Big Four” era, the number of grand slams he won began to dry up.
Fortunately for him, I highly doubt
this will apply. Unlike boxing, where you really can taint your record, in
Tennis you will always have your grand slams, even if Roger doesn’t win another
grand slam, people will remember that at the ripe old age of 33 he was still
making slam finals, and maybe when he starting winning the era wasn’t as good
as it is now but people forget he didn’t just win, he destroyed players,
especially on grass. It was hardly going to be to compete with three incredible
players 4 years younger than him.
And let’s not forget, Roger has
beaten those players in six grand slam finals, Andy Murray has only notched 2
wins against those 3 in finals, losing 8 of those matches. So Roger’s status in
the history books as the Greatest will be protected, whatever happens in the
twilight of his career.
Ultimately I think Roger will be
hard pushed to add to his mountain of Grand Slam titles. Novak Djokovic has
become a player with an incredible repertoire of shots and an engine that is
unbreakable and as Federer ages it will get tougher for him. With Murray
getting closer and closer to matching the Serb, and youngsters coming through,
it will be a tall order for Roger to do it.
Obviously I wouldn’t write him off,
and it isn’t impossible but for me this injury break is six months that Roger
will be disappointed to lose. Although it is only one grand slam, the rankings
hit and missing out on the Olympics and ATP world tour finals will hurt too.
Federer will need to make sure he comes back in peak physical condition to
stand any chance. 2017 could be his last chance to lift one of the coveted
prizes above his head again, after that we will be looking for miracles.
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