The Summer Tours Previews - Ireland in South Africa

Ireland in South Africa

On the morning of the 12th March this year there was huge concern for Ireland, they would have been fearful at the prospect of facing South Africa. 4 winless games on the bounce, in a Six Nations Wooden Spoon Scrap, with not a single team into the Champions Cup quarter finals. Less than 3 months later, they will be absolutely relishing a shot at the Springboks.

The Irish teams showed their class at the back-end of the Pro 12 season, all 4 made it into the top six, with three of the top four coming from Ireland. The Six Nations was always going to be tricky with away games in France and England and having to face favourites Wales in the opening game, given some of the injuries they had, however domestically they have shown their true colours. 

The Springboks are tough to call. Expectation and pressure is huge on the shoulders of new coach Allister Coetzee. To think his predecessor lost his job after a two point defeat against the consecutive World Champions in a World Cup semi-final, he has to win, and will be in trouble if he fails to get a whitewash. South African rugby is set to enter a new era following the World Cup, with the retirements of three all-time great players and captains, in Victor Matfield, Jean de Villiers and Fourie du Preez, but regardless of how much developing Coetzee wants to do, he needs to win.

Comparing the squads, you have to say South Africa have the better players. Ireland's squad looks different in comparison to last year but compared to South Africa's there's plenty of experience. The biggest concern for Coetzee and the Springbok supporters seems to be experience – or rather the lack thereof. Nine players out of the 31 have never played a Test before, while only eight have played more than 30 Tests. 

The tactical battle will be fascinating. It looks as if South Africa will try to play more attractive rugby than before. From Lionel Mapoe to Elton Jantjies and Warren Whiteley, all Lions players, Coetzee has picked the men in form. The Lions are top of the South African conference and have played the most attractive rugby so these selections would suggest this is the direction their new coach wants to go in. But I wouldn't be surprised to see them go for the tried and tested physical approach given the fact they'll get just a week together before that first test.

Mapoe is just one of many that has impressed for the Lions

Ireland kept a lot more of the ball than usual in the 2016 but it would be really surprising if they didn't go for their typical kicking game. It should keep the South African's deep so will make attacking physically or with flair very difficult. It worked superbly for the 2015 Six Nations Champions when they beat South Africa a year and a half ago, despite having a weakened team they outplayed South Africa who were pretty well at full strength. 

Ireland's November 2014 win was one of the most famous in their history

Ireland have got a good recent record against South Africa, winning 4 of their last 6 matches against them. Compare that with England, who have not won in 12 meetings against the South Africa and that is a really impressive statistic. Ireland once again are suffering from injuries with Luke Fitzgerald recently joining wings Simon Zebo and Tommy Bowe, and forwards Cian Healy, Denis Buckley, Nathan White, Sean O'Brien, Peter O'Mahony, Josh van der Flier and Andrew Conway on a long injury list. That suggests they will once again have to rely on their superb half backs to build their gameplan on. 

Ireland have never won in South Africa. It is a really tough place to go but they have got an opportunity. The first game is a genuine chance to get a win. Their tactics may be difficult for the Boks to deal with in the opener and South Africa may struggle to gel immediately. I think there will be other chances for Ireland too. If South Africa got 2-0 up I don't see why they wouldn't try new players or tactics for game three so I do believe they will have a good chance of getting a test. A series win? It will be really tough and I reckon South Africa have the confidence and ability to see it home. Regardless of their lack of experience and potentially new style they have a better squad than Ireland and it will be enough to win the series

South Africa to win the series 2-1

Update - Sexton ruled out of tour
This changes everything, with Sexton unavailable, I struggle to see how Ireland can really execute their game-plan that successfully and don't back Paddy Jackson to kick his goals, ultimately this makes me think that they'll do really well to avoid a 3-0 defeat and I can't see them avoiding the white wash.


South Africa to win the series 3-0