England in Australia
So the big one, two giants of World Rugby. England looking the best of the Northern Hemisphere, their host looking like New Zealand's big challengers for the world's top spot Can Eddie keep the feel-good factor alive? Or will the nation of his birth inflict his first set-back.
Let's start with the visitors, who really are flying high, 7 wins on the bounce, 3 teams in the European Semi-Finals, an easy grand-slam win, and a lot of young talent coming through. Whilst Lancaster's era was interesting, Jones' is proving to be genuinely exciting. This was epitomised by their pre-tour win against Wales. Missing around 10 first team players to the Aviva Premiership Final, England's youngsters ran riot against a pretty well full strength Wales, outscoring them five tries to one. It's not just the future that looks bright for England. Starters Goode, Farrell, Itoje, Kruis and the Vunipola brothers have been part of a double-winning Saracens side, on top of that Grand Slam win. Suddenly the development culture of English rugby has been replaced by a winning one.
It's tough to say whether England have got any World Class players in their starting line up. For me they haven't just yet but they are full of talent. Billy Vunipola's ball carrying ability will be a huge factor for them on this tour, at the back of a strong pack. His Saracens team mates are likely to start in the second row, causing havoc to opposition line outs as they have done all season long. Behind the pack, Jonathan Joseph has the potential to be incredibly dangerous on his day and his bath team mate Anthony Watson seems to be able to finish in any circumstances if he gets the ball in the 22. Owen Farrell should kick the crucial points when required, so England have great structures and some individual brilliance in place for this tour, but will it be enough against the Aussies?
Moving onto the hosts, who lit up the World Cup last year with 30 tries in their 7 tournament games. After easing through what was by far the hardest pool they ran in 5 tries against Scotland (albeit conceding a load of points) and eased past Argentina to set up a final with the All Blacks. The 34-17 defeat was a harsh reflection on the Wallabies in the game, but they ultimately did deserve to lose. But what an amazing tournament. A side that had been written off for being "weak" and "disorganised" after they had been beaten at Twickenham the previous year proved they had what it takes to beat some of the biggest nations and compete right at the very top of the world stage. It's fair to say Australia are very close to being back where they feel they belong. They are not doing badly in Super Rugby too, the bulk of their players come from the Brumbies and Warathas, who are right up there with the New Zealand giants.
So things are impressive for Australia, but not quite as impressive as the Islands to the East. Australia have always been reasonably close to New Zealand, and this is their opportunity to close the gap. New Zealand have made a lot of changes and should be contestable, but Australia you feel, cannot lose against England if they are to progress further. Both teams need to win this series to propel themselves to challenge the kiwis, which makes it all the more tantalising.
Regarding the players, Australia have a reasonably similar pack, with breakdown kings David Pocock and Michael Hooper still likely to start and cause England all kinds of problems. England will need to really nullify their threat if they are to have any chance in attack. Looking at their back line they are missing retired Drew Mitchell and Matt Giteau but still have so much world class talent. Folau, Kuridrani, Foley and several others on their day would make it into a World XV. You can't honestly say that about a single England player yet. If England defend as passively as they did against this Australian team in the World Cup, expect three more drubbings.
So how is it going to go? There are four key areas that England need to transform themselves from that painful World Cup defeat to stand any chance of getting anything down under. The first is the scrummage. Billy Vunipola is so dangerous, but this is multiplied 10-fold if he is at the back of a scrum going forwards as opposed to one going backwards. In the World Cup, the latter was the case and not even Vunipola could have done any damage of the back of that car crash of a scrum. England will get better here, but with Mako Vunipola in the front row instead of Marler, it is hard to see them dominating enough to win the game off it.
Second is the breakdown. England were embarassed by Pocock and Hooper at the World Cup. Even after all the massive hype for these two individuals, it seemed like there was no plan to stop their impact. Under Jones England will have a plan, so I think they'll reduce this threat, especially with the likes of Haskell, Itoje and Kruis in this area too but they won't completely stop it. The latter two players need time to develop and one of England's young flankers needs to really grow into a 7 shirt before England can match the best here. Unfortunately they may not get the speed of ball that made them so deadly in the Six Nations which could hamper their attack. But I do see them getting enough to have a go, which will keep them in the game if they are clinical like they were against Wales for periods.
Thirdly is the lineout. Itoje and Kruis are superb in this area. This could be a valuable weapon for England, if they can dominate here they can have plenty of the ball, enough to get the points they require, the Aussies of course have some top lineout players as well, like James Horwill, but I do feel England will get the upper hand.
Finally, defence, specifically in the back line. England were letting runners through at will in that World Cup clash, allowing the Aussies to constantly be putting England under pressure. In stark contrast, England barely broke the line once. This is another area that I can see a lot of improvement coming however. The Australian ball won't be as fast for a start, allowing more England players to fill the gaps that were so clear 9 months ago. As well as this, Paul Gustard will have England going up at speed and if he can transform them into the previous model he had at Saracens, there won't be many line breaks for the Aussies to work with.
Prediction time. I feel really confident that England can win at least a game in Australia. A 3-0 defeat is not disastrous but would really take the wind out of England's sails and massively slow down Eddie Jones' progress. England are fully capable of avoiding that but winning the series is another matter. Australia have got more talent and experience than England and have got home advantage, which is set to be a massive factor. They will fight so hard for every game and after a long, hard domestic season, it will be very tough for the men in white by game three. I think England are fully capable of getting a test, the fan in me reckons a series win but if I take the two squads at face value, with a lot of factors favouring the Aussies, England will do really well to pinch a test. I reckon they will, but not even Eddie can end their wait for a series win down there, not yet at least...
Australia to win the series 2-1
So the big one, two giants of World Rugby. England looking the best of the Northern Hemisphere, their host looking like New Zealand's big challengers for the world's top spot Can Eddie keep the feel-good factor alive? Or will the nation of his birth inflict his first set-back.
Let's start with the visitors, who really are flying high, 7 wins on the bounce, 3 teams in the European Semi-Finals, an easy grand-slam win, and a lot of young talent coming through. Whilst Lancaster's era was interesting, Jones' is proving to be genuinely exciting. This was epitomised by their pre-tour win against Wales. Missing around 10 first team players to the Aviva Premiership Final, England's youngsters ran riot against a pretty well full strength Wales, outscoring them five tries to one. It's not just the future that looks bright for England. Starters Goode, Farrell, Itoje, Kruis and the Vunipola brothers have been part of a double-winning Saracens side, on top of that Grand Slam win. Suddenly the development culture of English rugby has been replaced by a winning one.
Young's crossed against Wales as England claimed a confidence-boosting win before their tour
It's tough to say whether England have got any World Class players in their starting line up. For me they haven't just yet but they are full of talent. Billy Vunipola's ball carrying ability will be a huge factor for them on this tour, at the back of a strong pack. His Saracens team mates are likely to start in the second row, causing havoc to opposition line outs as they have done all season long. Behind the pack, Jonathan Joseph has the potential to be incredibly dangerous on his day and his bath team mate Anthony Watson seems to be able to finish in any circumstances if he gets the ball in the 22. Owen Farrell should kick the crucial points when required, so England have great structures and some individual brilliance in place for this tour, but will it be enough against the Aussies?
Owen Farrell kicked seven penalties to help Saracens to a 21-9 victory in the Champions Cup final
Moving onto the hosts, who lit up the World Cup last year with 30 tries in their 7 tournament games. After easing through what was by far the hardest pool they ran in 5 tries against Scotland (albeit conceding a load of points) and eased past Argentina to set up a final with the All Blacks. The 34-17 defeat was a harsh reflection on the Wallabies in the game, but they ultimately did deserve to lose. But what an amazing tournament. A side that had been written off for being "weak" and "disorganised" after they had been beaten at Twickenham the previous year proved they had what it takes to beat some of the biggest nations and compete right at the very top of the world stage. It's fair to say Australia are very close to being back where they feel they belong. They are not doing badly in Super Rugby too, the bulk of their players come from the Brumbies and Warathas, who are right up there with the New Zealand giants.
So things are impressive for Australia, but not quite as impressive as the Islands to the East. Australia have always been reasonably close to New Zealand, and this is their opportunity to close the gap. New Zealand have made a lot of changes and should be contestable, but Australia you feel, cannot lose against England if they are to progress further. Both teams need to win this series to propel themselves to challenge the kiwis, which makes it all the more tantalising.
Regarding the players, Australia have a reasonably similar pack, with breakdown kings David Pocock and Michael Hooper still likely to start and cause England all kinds of problems. England will need to really nullify their threat if they are to have any chance in attack. Looking at their back line they are missing retired Drew Mitchell and Matt Giteau but still have so much world class talent. Folau, Kuridrani, Foley and several others on their day would make it into a World XV. You can't honestly say that about a single England player yet. If England defend as passively as they did against this Australian team in the World Cup, expect three more drubbings.
So how is it going to go? There are four key areas that England need to transform themselves from that painful World Cup defeat to stand any chance of getting anything down under. The first is the scrummage. Billy Vunipola is so dangerous, but this is multiplied 10-fold if he is at the back of a scrum going forwards as opposed to one going backwards. In the World Cup, the latter was the case and not even Vunipola could have done any damage of the back of that car crash of a scrum. England will get better here, but with Mako Vunipola in the front row instead of Marler, it is hard to see them dominating enough to win the game off it.
Second is the breakdown. England were embarassed by Pocock and Hooper at the World Cup. Even after all the massive hype for these two individuals, it seemed like there was no plan to stop their impact. Under Jones England will have a plan, so I think they'll reduce this threat, especially with the likes of Haskell, Itoje and Kruis in this area too but they won't completely stop it. The latter two players need time to develop and one of England's young flankers needs to really grow into a 7 shirt before England can match the best here. Unfortunately they may not get the speed of ball that made them so deadly in the Six Nations which could hamper their attack. But I do see them getting enough to have a go, which will keep them in the game if they are clinical like they were against Wales for periods.
Pocock and Hooper were a huge part of Australia's World Cup Success
Thirdly is the lineout. Itoje and Kruis are superb in this area. This could be a valuable weapon for England, if they can dominate here they can have plenty of the ball, enough to get the points they require, the Aussies of course have some top lineout players as well, like James Horwill, but I do feel England will get the upper hand.
Finally, defence, specifically in the back line. England were letting runners through at will in that World Cup clash, allowing the Aussies to constantly be putting England under pressure. In stark contrast, England barely broke the line once. This is another area that I can see a lot of improvement coming however. The Australian ball won't be as fast for a start, allowing more England players to fill the gaps that were so clear 9 months ago. As well as this, Paul Gustard will have England going up at speed and if he can transform them into the previous model he had at Saracens, there won't be many line breaks for the Aussies to work with.
Prediction time. I feel really confident that England can win at least a game in Australia. A 3-0 defeat is not disastrous but would really take the wind out of England's sails and massively slow down Eddie Jones' progress. England are fully capable of avoiding that but winning the series is another matter. Australia have got more talent and experience than England and have got home advantage, which is set to be a massive factor. They will fight so hard for every game and after a long, hard domestic season, it will be very tough for the men in white by game three. I think England are fully capable of getting a test, the fan in me reckons a series win but if I take the two squads at face value, with a lot of factors favouring the Aussies, England will do really well to pinch a test. I reckon they will, but not even Eddie can end their wait for a series win down there, not yet at least...
Will Eddie still be smiling after a return to his home country?
Australia to win the series 2-1
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