By Nick Powell
A feisty rivalry at Britain’s largest stadium, a west-country derby, an east midlands derby with a play-off spot on the line and an incredibly tense relegation battle at Kingston Park. It’s fair to say that week 20 of this season’s Aviva Premiership is going to be huge in how this incredible season ends up.
Whilst the cherry-whites will be reeling from that defeat, they are unlikely to have the kind of scars Exeter do. Their west-country rivals led Wasps at the Ricoh by 13 points with just 15 minutes left but (reasons why they lost) cost them. One positive is that they can now focus on the Premiership but that was probably little consolation in the last week. It must be incredibly damaging to lose with the last kick like that.
So two teams that lost games late on. Who will respond better to the test? There’s no hiding the fact Exeter have been the better team this season, and whilst I struggle to say they have the better squad, Rob Baxter has squeezed the very best out of each and every player. It is a real test however and the pressure is on, and for Gloucester this is almost a dead-rubber so they may come out and play heads-up rugby. It is going to be a very close match and is actually very difficult to call, but I think a very highly-motivated Exeter, who will have worked on closing out games will be too much for the men in red.
Worcester vs Wasps
Wasps are on quite phenomenal form. They just can’t lose and whilst they really weren’t good for the first hour against Exeter (reasons) but they pulled off a comeback which is that of a team that can win titles. They are pushing for that top 2 spot, and with a trip to Sandy Park on the way, they in with a good chance of earning that so will head to Sixways looking for all five points.
And they will get them, whether Worcester play the youngsters or a full team, they just won’t match the likes of Jimmy Gopperth, Nathan Hughes and George Smith and whilst they won’t be flattened they won’t cause the Coventry side many problems at all.
Wasps by 16 points.
Result: Worcester 35-54 Wasps
Saracens vs Harlequins
As a matter of fact they aren’t. It was Quins that landed the only win against Saracens whilst they had all internationals available. Since that day, it’s all been downhill for them though. They were brutally exposed during the international period. Two wins in eight tells the story. Unfortunately, they haven’t picked up as rapidly as expected as well. A game they should have won at Franklin’s garden went through their grasp to end their top 4 hopes, they have beaten Newcastle and Irish since then, but they are the bottom two sides in the country and Quins needed the last 20 minutes to win it for them. They were poor last week and had some terrible spells in a game that had almost no intensity against Newcastle.
The tradition is Quins go to Wembley and get beat by 30. They have recorded one win, back in 2012 when they won the League but both sides’ fortunes have changed dramatically since then. The hosts for the better, the visitors for the worse. It all depends on the team coach Conor O’Shea picks. I don’t hold out much hope for Quins, but a weakened team would get a hiding. I can see Quins stepping up with a strong team though, in which case they won’t win but will at least put the League Leaders under pressure. The pitch, supporters and current form favours Sarries and that will get them over the line.
Saracens by 11 points
Result: Saracens 22-12 Quins
They will want to build on that Champions Cup quarter final thumping by securing top four here. That would be two semi-finals and then Richard Cockerill would face a challenge of how to manage his season, but he won’t be thinking about that yet, this is a hugely difficult game. Leicester are increasingly looking like the sides of the 2000s that won trophies and reached finals at will.
So many top class players go up against each other here. One-on-one battles may be crucial in the eventual outcome of the game as well. This is probably the biggest derby between these two in a regular season game and I think to win it will require huge motivation and a home crowd. Something Northampton will have. Leicester will be up for it but the desperation won’t be there and their away form has failed to match their home performances.
Northampton by 6 points.
Result: Northampton 24-30 Leicester
Sale vs Bath
For Bath it is really important that they have a strong finish of the season, the Champions Cup would be miraculous to reach now but it would be great for them if they could at least apply pressure of some kind of pressure to those Champions Cup chasers, players like Joseph and Ford have got an opportunity to prove themselves for England in games which effectively don’t matter. But for the latter’s father, Mike, the pressure really is building on his DOR role, so he needs results.
It will be close, but Sale are so solid at home, Bath will be without Watson and whilst they got a decent rest last week I think they will be beaten by a Sale team who will bounce back and be fighting hard for a top six sport
Sale by 12 points
Result: Sale 29-17 Bath
Newcastle vs London Irish
Newcastle have relied on home form for their wins and beating play-off contenders Quins, Northampton and Leicester at Kingston Park, the venue for this huge game, will give them confidence in the week. If they were to lose this game, numerically it wouldn’t be a major problem. It’s the psychological blow and fall in confidence that will hurt them if they suffer defeat in this one though. Going to Saracens and hosting Sale is not easy, but a lot more difficult when you feel you’re the worst team in the League and fighting for your lives. The two weeks rest would have helped Newcastle, and they’ll be ready for this kind of encounter, as they have had plenty down they years. Beating Wasps but agonisingly missing out in 2012, being defeated by Worcester but clinging on two years later are examples that come to mind, but not particularly relatable as those games ultimately didn’t have an effect on the outcome but it seems this one definitely will.
Unfortunately anyone expecting a high scoring affair is unlikely to be treated. I will be surprised if there are more than two tries. It will be a tight, tense, nervy battle and both sides will fight to the bitter end, especially Irish. There won’t be much in it but Irish will grab it with their superior bench late on, and that will see them claim a huge win.
Irish by 5 points
Result: Newcastle 13-6 London Irish
A feisty rivalry at Britain’s largest stadium, a west-country derby, an east midlands derby with a play-off spot on the line and an incredibly tense relegation battle at Kingston Park. It’s fair to say that week 20 of this season’s Aviva Premiership is going to be huge in how this incredible season ends up.
Gloucester vs Exeter
Gloucester
suffered a desperately disappointing defeat against Dragons last week. David
Humphreys said it was as poorly as they’d performed under him and you have to
wonder how they managed to lose it. It was a game you would fully expect them
to win and now any hope of a Champions Cup spot next season rests on three wins
and several results going their way. It seems that they will not be playing in the
top tier of European rugby next season, which is a real shame because they have
got some fantastic players and they’ve definitely deserved it based on the way
they’ve played in the last couple of seasons especially in Europe.
Whilst the cherry-whites will be reeling from that defeat, they are unlikely to have the kind of scars Exeter do. Their west-country rivals led Wasps at the Ricoh by 13 points with just 15 minutes left but (reasons why they lost) cost them. One positive is that they can now focus on the Premiership but that was probably little consolation in the last week. It must be incredibly damaging to lose with the last kick like that.
So two teams that lost games late on. Who will respond better to the test? There’s no hiding the fact Exeter have been the better team this season, and whilst I struggle to say they have the better squad, Rob Baxter has squeezed the very best out of each and every player. It is a real test however and the pressure is on, and for Gloucester this is almost a dead-rubber so they may come out and play heads-up rugby. It is going to be a very close match and is actually very difficult to call, but I think a very highly-motivated Exeter, who will have worked on closing out games will be too much for the men in red.
Exeter by 3 points
Result: Gloucester 16-9 Exeter
Result: Gloucester 16-9 Exeter
Worcester vs Wasps
Safe
Worcester’s season is complete, they will survive comfortably but are miles off
the Champions Cup. Does this mean Dean Ryan will blood players, and how much
are they really going to be up for it? Is it worth getting that injury from
giving it your all that could damage summer tour hopes or the start of next
season for the sake of 3 more points? Probably not, so blooding the youngsters
that are up for it is logical, a very interesting job for Ryan and quite a challenge.
Wasps are on quite phenomenal form. They just can’t lose and whilst they really weren’t good for the first hour against Exeter (reasons) but they pulled off a comeback which is that of a team that can win titles. They are pushing for that top 2 spot, and with a trip to Sandy Park on the way, they in with a good chance of earning that so will head to Sixways looking for all five points.
And they will get them, whether Worcester play the youngsters or a full team, they just won’t match the likes of Jimmy Gopperth, Nathan Hughes and George Smith and whilst they won’t be flattened they won’t cause the Coventry side many problems at all.
Wasps by 16 points.
Result: Worcester 35-54 Wasps
Saracens vs Harlequins
Saracens
were very flat in the first period of their big game against Northampton but
showed their immense ability to go up the gears and ultimately deserved to win.
For this game, their showpiece event in front of roughly 90,000 that in the
last few seasons have seen dominant wins against their London rivals. Saracens
are just packed with quality that shows why they are top of the League, Itoje
and Kruis towering in the lineout, Vunipola getting 5 or 10 metres over the
gain-line with every brutal carry, and then a top class backline finishes off
the chances, simple but hugely effective. When these players aren’t there, they
do lose some games, but when they are they are completely unbeatable.
As a matter of fact they aren’t. It was Quins that landed the only win against Saracens whilst they had all internationals available. Since that day, it’s all been downhill for them though. They were brutally exposed during the international period. Two wins in eight tells the story. Unfortunately, they haven’t picked up as rapidly as expected as well. A game they should have won at Franklin’s garden went through their grasp to end their top 4 hopes, they have beaten Newcastle and Irish since then, but they are the bottom two sides in the country and Quins needed the last 20 minutes to win it for them. They were poor last week and had some terrible spells in a game that had almost no intensity against Newcastle.
The tradition is Quins go to Wembley and get beat by 30. They have recorded one win, back in 2012 when they won the League but both sides’ fortunes have changed dramatically since then. The hosts for the better, the visitors for the worse. It all depends on the team coach Conor O’Shea picks. I don’t hold out much hope for Quins, but a weakened team would get a hiding. I can see Quins stepping up with a strong team though, in which case they won’t win but will at least put the League Leaders under pressure. The pitch, supporters and current form favours Sarries and that will get them over the line.
Saracens by 11 points
Result: Saracens 22-12 Quins
Northampton vs Leicester
Northampton
will feel disappointed that they missed out on a Champions Cup Semi Final place
after last week’s game. But sadly there was little they could do unfortunately
as super Saracens went up the gears. This is a huge game for them, season
defining. Win here, they have a great chance of top 4 and are probably in pole
position to earn that 4th spot. A loss, and they are suddenly in a
real scrap with Quins and Sale for a top 6 finish. Champions Cup quarter final
and no place in that competition next season would be a disastrous season for a
club of their size, but it’s not as if Leicester are going to open the door
willingly.
They will want to build on that Champions Cup quarter final thumping by securing top four here. That would be two semi-finals and then Richard Cockerill would face a challenge of how to manage his season, but he won’t be thinking about that yet, this is a hugely difficult game. Leicester are increasingly looking like the sides of the 2000s that won trophies and reached finals at will.
So many top class players go up against each other here. One-on-one battles may be crucial in the eventual outcome of the game as well. This is probably the biggest derby between these two in a regular season game and I think to win it will require huge motivation and a home crowd. Something Northampton will have. Leicester will be up for it but the desperation won’t be there and their away form has failed to match their home performances.
Northampton by 6 points.
Result: Northampton 24-30 Leicester
Sale vs Bath
Sale will be
hugely disappointed not to have beaten Montpellier last week, and lose their
unbeaten home record but they didn’t do a huge amount wrong in fairness.
Montpellier are one of the top French teams and will make a real charge for the
European Challenge Cup title. They will hope, and feel they need, to bounce
back against Bath as they chase a place in the Champions Cup next year. For
them now, with Bath to go away to next week this is a really important game if
they have any hope in that race.
For Bath it is really important that they have a strong finish of the season, the Champions Cup would be miraculous to reach now but it would be great for them if they could at least apply pressure of some kind of pressure to those Champions Cup chasers, players like Joseph and Ford have got an opportunity to prove themselves for England in games which effectively don’t matter. But for the latter’s father, Mike, the pressure really is building on his DOR role, so he needs results.
It will be close, but Sale are so solid at home, Bath will be without Watson and whilst they got a decent rest last week I think they will be beaten by a Sale team who will bounce back and be fighting hard for a top six sport
Sale by 12 points
Result: Sale 29-17 Bath
Newcastle vs London Irish
The biggest
game in these two clubs’ history other than their respective Premiership
Finals, one thing is clear and obvious before kick-off here. The Premiership is
losing a historically excellent and currently promising side. Both these teams’
best years are ahead of them and maybe a season in the Championship would be a
blessing in disguise but that is not how it will be viewed in the two dressing
rooms.
Newcastle have relied on home form for their wins and beating play-off contenders Quins, Northampton and Leicester at Kingston Park, the venue for this huge game, will give them confidence in the week. If they were to lose this game, numerically it wouldn’t be a major problem. It’s the psychological blow and fall in confidence that will hurt them if they suffer defeat in this one though. Going to Saracens and hosting Sale is not easy, but a lot more difficult when you feel you’re the worst team in the League and fighting for your lives. The two weeks rest would have helped Newcastle, and they’ll be ready for this kind of encounter, as they have had plenty down they years. Beating Wasps but agonisingly missing out in 2012, being defeated by Worcester but clinging on two years later are examples that come to mind, but not particularly relatable as those games ultimately didn’t have an effect on the outcome but it seems this one definitely will.
Irish
elected to play a weakened team at the Stoop last week, but against a poor
Harlequins you feel they would have won and be hosting Grenoble next week.
They’d have likely won that and had a shot at the Champions Cup, but clearly
it’s more logical to put survival before any European ambitions. Irish will be
7 or 8 points adrift if they lose here and I reckon that will be that for them.
Whilst I wouldn’t rule them out against Quins I will be stunned if they did
anything but lose at the Ricoh Arena. They simply have to win then, and set
themselves up for the survival fight perfectly. Can they do it? Well, their
form is decent, and their style will be good on the 3G pitch. They’ll also take
confidence from the fact they won their earlier season meeting and did the
double last season.
Unfortunately anyone expecting a high scoring affair is unlikely to be treated. I will be surprised if there are more than two tries. It will be a tight, tense, nervy battle and both sides will fight to the bitter end, especially Irish. There won’t be much in it but Irish will grab it with their superior bench late on, and that will see them claim a huge win.
Irish by 5 points
Result: Newcastle 13-6 London Irish
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