By Nick Powell
Last year's final day saw 221 points and 27 tries scored as Ireland's thumping win against Scotland was enough to see them home, as the top three all put in sensational performances. This year there's nothing on the line for all but one of the teams. Will that trigger expansive, exciting rugby to be played or will the sides with nothing to play for allow the 2016 edition to fizzle out disappointingly.
The hosts bring to an end a Championship which seemed as if it could have been a lot better for them. They should have won against Ireland but were poor against England, though the two games in the middle were deserved wins. The big criticism of Wales has been their lack of invention. They have always been a side that needs to earn the right to go wide, but this year they've not really gone wide. This is a wonderful opportunity for them to go out and play some rugby against a team that can't really defend off quick ball.
Italy's Championship has been far from impressive. I would be surprised if this doesn't end up as one of their statistically worse championships. There was so much promise after week one, and had they not conceded that late, controversial penalty against France they would have done a lot better in my opinion. But rather than a joyful swansong this has been a slow, painful death for Jacques Brunel's era. Italy's defence is broken. Their attack is ok, but an average of nearly 45 points shipped in their last three games doesn't bode well.
They are in for a very difficult test here. I expect Wales to come out and play. Historically they struggle to put the Italians to the sword, infact they've lost twice in the past and drawn one at the Millennium stadium in 2006. I doubt they will have a problem with the result here, and after putting 60 points on them last year I do expect comfortable victory. Trying to put a points total on it isn't easy, so I'll play it safe in the middle, but it could be a lot more or a lot less.
Wales by 27 points
Ireland vs Scotland
Ireland picked a line up which implied they'd play a kicking game against Italy but they came out and scored some really nice tries, the fourth being the prime example, they moved the ball like the All Blacks as they raced up the length of the field. Ireland vs Scotland, apart from last year, has rarely been an entertaining contest. Scotland are playing better rugby this year though, and you genuinely feel they have a chance here. Ireland will need to be on top form. The question is, do they accept 5th is not that bad and play with flair or do they make sure of the third place with an exciting display.
Scotland have been great in their last two games, I said we shouldn't read into the win against Italy, but they deservedly beat France. They were convincing throughout and they are now travelling to a side that lost to France. There must be confidence there. They will also have to make the decision, do they go for the win in ugly style to get a top three finish, or do they just go for it and risk finishing fifth, in my opinion they can only win playing exciting rugby so it should be the latter.
This is so unpredictable, it really does depend on which of the two teams turns up on the day. Ireland are arguably the better side, but why can't Scotland just repeat last week's performance, if they are clinical, strong in defence and keep fighting in this game they have a chance, but I expect Joe Schmidt to have the perfect tactics and with Johnny Sexton there, Ireland will get the job done. I've predicted Scotland to lose the last two and they've won the last two, but I feel I'll be third time luck here. Although I'd love to be proved wrong.
Ireland by 10 points
France vs England
France's Championship started with so much promise, they were two out of two heading to Wales and whilst most people thought they would lose, they made some key mistakes in the second half which cost them what could have been a victory. Scotland were very good last week, and the second try they scored did not leave the French happy with the referee, but it's a game that France really should be winning if they still want to be considered a force in the Northern hemisphere, let alone the World.
Having said that, they are making progress, they have made more offloads in the first four rounds than all of other teams in the competition combined. Whilst England's rise under a new coach has been rapid, you have to say that that has been caused by a high-quality league with lots of English players, and the players brought in under Lancaster. Jones' tactics have been good, but would they have brought an instant grand slam with France? No way.
England have lost 5 out of their last six grand slam deciders, that is a dire record and one that hasn't necessarily come against fantastic opposition. Scotland had lost to Italy earlier in the tournament when they stunned England in 2000 and Ireland had lost two games when they did the same as they thumped the men in white five years ago. The example relevant to this team is 2013 though, most recently where they were annihilated by Wales, so badly that they lost the Championship.
But this year is very different. This is a more experienced, controlled team. In that Six Nations, England had really had to edge out Ireland and Italy, this year they thoroughly deserved to beat both. England play with rapid ball which is so tough to deal with. Paris will not be easy to go to, France have won 6 of their last 7 games there and will be highly motivated to deny England the win. This is the best chance England have had for a grand slam since 2003 and the best chance they'll get for a long long time. I back them to do it, but it's France so you never know.
England by five points
Last year's final day saw 221 points and 27 tries scored as Ireland's thumping win against Scotland was enough to see them home, as the top three all put in sensational performances. This year there's nothing on the line for all but one of the teams. Will that trigger expansive, exciting rugby to be played or will the sides with nothing to play for allow the 2016 edition to fizzle out disappointingly.
Wales vs Italy
Italy's Championship has been far from impressive. I would be surprised if this doesn't end up as one of their statistically worse championships. There was so much promise after week one, and had they not conceded that late, controversial penalty against France they would have done a lot better in my opinion. But rather than a joyful swansong this has been a slow, painful death for Jacques Brunel's era. Italy's defence is broken. Their attack is ok, but an average of nearly 45 points shipped in their last three games doesn't bode well.
They are in for a very difficult test here. I expect Wales to come out and play. Historically they struggle to put the Italians to the sword, infact they've lost twice in the past and drawn one at the Millennium stadium in 2006. I doubt they will have a problem with the result here, and after putting 60 points on them last year I do expect comfortable victory. Trying to put a points total on it isn't easy, so I'll play it safe in the middle, but it could be a lot more or a lot less.
Wales by 27 points
Ireland vs Scotland
Ireland picked a line up which implied they'd play a kicking game against Italy but they came out and scored some really nice tries, the fourth being the prime example, they moved the ball like the All Blacks as they raced up the length of the field. Ireland vs Scotland, apart from last year, has rarely been an entertaining contest. Scotland are playing better rugby this year though, and you genuinely feel they have a chance here. Ireland will need to be on top form. The question is, do they accept 5th is not that bad and play with flair or do they make sure of the third place with an exciting display.
Ireland by 10 points
France vs England
France's Championship started with so much promise, they were two out of two heading to Wales and whilst most people thought they would lose, they made some key mistakes in the second half which cost them what could have been a victory. Scotland were very good last week, and the second try they scored did not leave the French happy with the referee, but it's a game that France really should be winning if they still want to be considered a force in the Northern hemisphere, let alone the World.
Having said that, they are making progress, they have made more offloads in the first four rounds than all of other teams in the competition combined. Whilst England's rise under a new coach has been rapid, you have to say that that has been caused by a high-quality league with lots of English players, and the players brought in under Lancaster. Jones' tactics have been good, but would they have brought an instant grand slam with France? No way.
England by five points
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